April 17, 2006
I just built off what your calculations and compared to what the predicted census will be in 2009.
I've got a percentage of how many people will be blogging on this marble in 2009.
It's just plain amazing
"If the curve starts to significantly dip anytime soon, it won't because bogging jumped the shark. It'll be because the planet has run out of smart, passionate people with cheap internet access."
One never gets tired of a good bog ;)
Seriously that's a great quote, and also, I think the roughly 10% increase in active blogs after 3 months is very significant. Seems the learning curve for bloggers is flattening. A very good sign.
the number of people writing blogs is exploding - but the number of people reading them is declining. Is blogging turning into the pyramid fiasco of the 2000s, only working for early adopters?
I'm more concerned about the long end of the Long Tail being polluted by splogs.
Blogs at the nice plump left side of the Long Tail are safe. Readers know and love them, or learn about them from the other Big Blogs.
The only way readers will find out about the small blogs are through links from big and medium blogs, or search engines like Technorati.
Navigating through Technorati's "a little authority" search results makes me worry for the small blogs' visibility and future.
Hugh - you change my "adopters" to "adapters" - switching the emphasis from the tool itself to the talent and creativity of the person using it. I think you're right to do so.
The idea that X billion blogs will inevitably have massive impact on global communication is far from a foregone conclusion. The blogsphere boosts the number of talkers, but not necessarily the number of listeners. As Fran Liebowitz said: "the opposite of talking is waiting".
Peter, I think blogs have already changed the world, at least, the more interesting bits of it ;-)
Sounds like a great idea for my seventh blog...
A lot of people who are internet-savvy have no interest in blogging. This is not so strange; some people are compulsive diarists, some are not. Likewise, some people are compulsive bloggers, some are compulsive players of WoW and some are compulsive Wikipedians. Extrapolating to 2bn bloggers in 3 years time is, of course, the fallacy of the exponential.
My comment got too big, so I posted it on my own site. The short version is that the extrapolation is questionable, but the conclusion holds. Blogs are something new and important, and if you aren't thinking about them yet, you should be.
Hugh - many feel the same could be said of the Daily Mail. ;O)